Blog
September 23, 2010
However Tecpro Systems differs from the other 2 IPOs in the sense that it is primarily focused on the Power Sector Space.It is a leader in the ash handling and material handling systems and is currently diversifying into becoming a turnkey provider in this segment.Like other infrastructure players it has seen amazing growth in the last 3 years at around 70%+.Its margins have come down and stabilized at around 7%.Cash Flow have been negative due the breakneck growth and the high WC requirements of the Construction Sector.The valuation does not seem expensive with the promoters diluting around 15% of the company.
Summary
This EPC company seems a good investment to me though not as good as VA Tech Wabag.The valuation at around 17x P/E is not very expensive though the sector concentration increase the risk for the company.However given the management quality,this company seems a better investment that other construction companies.The growth prospects of the Power Sector in India is huge and Tecpro seems well positioned in this space with partnerships with other major companies like Va Tech Wabag.Though there is some concentration risk,I think Tecpro seems a subscribe.
September 22, 2010
Not only Europe,even US is rapidly losing Green Jobs to Asia.Earlier Evergreen Solar had decided to shut down its US plant to set up a factory in China and Energy Conversion Devices is laying off workers to hire more in Mexico.The high costs of labor and capital have made it unfeasible for Western companies to manufacture in the Developed Nations.High Subsidies in the form of Low Interest Long Term Loans,Tax Holidays,Free Land have made the Asian countries irresistible to US companies.First Solar which is the largest manufacturer of panels in the world has most of its production in Malaysia where it enjoys a 15 year tax holiday.Chinese Company's get massive subsidies from the government.This combined with extremely low worker and managerial salaries make western factories totally uncompetitive in a globalized world.REC which is one of the world's biggest solar polysilicon and wafer producers has decided to shut down its module plant in Sweden.While the reason given is isolation from other factories,I suspect the costs are too high in expensive Sweden.Another European Solar Factory closes as Green Industry moves to Low Cost,Subsidy Rich Asia
September 22, 2010
Ashoka Buildcon is a Construction Company primarily focused on the Road Segments.Given India's huge demand for infrastructure and roads,the company is growing at 50%+ growth rates.However the quality of management is suspect given tax seizures,criminal cases and related transactions.The valuation of the company is also not cheap at around 22-23x P/E and around 3x P/B.The Company has grown at an excellent rate while maintaining a Net Margin of 8-10%.
Summary
While I like the Road Sector in India and the Company is a well positioned company in this sector,I hate to invest in a company where Management seems untrustworthy.The valuation of the company is not exactly cheap either without being very expensive at around 20x.However if something bad happens Macro wise then expect the stock price to plummet .There are other companies in the Road Sector like IL&FS which operates in the same segment but has a better management trust quotient.
September 22, 2010
VA Tech Wabag is one of the best quality companies to come out with an IPO in the Indian Market in 2010.The Company boasts of a quality management,good technology and fast growth.Despite a hiccup in 2009,the company has picked up its growth in 2010 and operating in a fast growing Water Industry with good execution,it looks to have little downsides.While Low Net Margins and High Working Capital is a characteristic of the EPC sector it operates in,the company has constantly been able to improve on those parameters.
Summary
There is almost nothing to dislike about the company except the valuation which is a tad expensive at around around 28-30x,however the sector P/E is also around 30-35x and VA Tech Wabag deserves a premium.Given the high quality of the company and the Water Sector it operates in,I would invest in the company as the future growth is tremendous.Also the international diversification and the Recession Proof Water Industry makes this investment safer than your normal Indian EPC company which are asking for the same valuations.
September 22, 2010
TSMC Cost Targets Would be Incredulous coming from any other Company
TSMC has said that it would look to become amongst the top 5 suppliers in the world in the next 5 years and looks at a Cost per Watt of only 19c/watt in the next 3 years which would be further reduced to 14c/watt.This is much lower than the current costs for the Solar Leader First Solar which is at around 75c/watt.This target if achieved would make solar energy the cheapest form of energy and would definitely make TSMC No.1.Note First Solar is planning a cost target of 52c/watt in the next few years.TSMC is planning to start production in Q211 with 200 MW of production planned for 2012.
September 21, 2010
Cons
1) Valuation - The Valuation of the company is not cheap at around 3x P/B and around 28-30x P/E .But with companies of the same quality going in for around the same if not higher valuations,why would the company sell the shares at a discount.This however does not make it better for investors who get very little for investing in a newly listed company.This stock is an unlikely candidate to be multibagger
2) Negative Cash Flows - The High WC Requirements of the Sector and Fast Growth has meant that the Operating Cash flows of the company have been negative in the last 3 years.
Summary
The Company and the Sector in which it operates is a good one,however the Valuation has discounted most of the good things about the company.The company has very little to be negative about except the high working capital ,negative cash flows and the like.But that is a feature of the Construction Sector rather than anything negative about the company.The high valuation given to the issue makes it avoidable given better opportunities in the Indian market.
September 21, 2010
Electrosteel Integrated is coming out with an IPO to raise around $50mm to fund its 2.2 million ton plant in Jharkand,India.The company is promoted by its listed parent Electrosteel Castings which has been running for the past 30 years and is leader in the Ductile Pipe Category.This company will have ECL holding of 34% post IPO with the other major shareholders being a bunch of PE firms and Stemcor.The plant construction will require around $1.5 billion capex out of which around 40% has been already been spent.Debt will be around $1.1 billion mostly at 12.25% interest rate.
Summary
The company has pluses as well as risks,however the plant should start operating in Oct 2010.While the investment is risky,the valuation being offered is cheap with good promoters.For people looking at lesser risk,ECL the parent company also makes a lot of sense.It is trading at 8x trailing P/E and around 1 P/Bx which is again cheap.It has a 34% share in the new company so will gain from any upside as well.Its investment in the company is Rs 700 crore with a total market cap of around Rs 1600 crore.Not expensive and a safer way to invest in
September 21, 2010
Nuclear Energy Insider spoke to Kenneth Hughey, Vice President, Nuclear Business Development at Entergy Nuclear who spoke about the financing problems that lie ahead for the US nuclear industry.“With nuclear construction being a high priority for many US utilities, it is important to stop and consider financing and the costs associated with new build projects. Permitting and licensing are aspects of the construction process where utilities could easily spend $60-100million without having guaranteed financial backing to proceed with the full construction project. Consequently it is extremely important to understand the costs associated with these processes and to learn how to keep your costs down while at the same time reducing future project risk.”There are many aspects of financing that need to be understood in order to proceed with new nuclear projects.
September 20, 2010
Bad Part
1) Bad Sector - It is marked by very high working capital,low margins,high competition and volatility in raw material prices.While Cantabil has grown well,the sector is hardly to excite someone about.The company's expansion plans will need lead to any dramatic improvement in its business model.
Summary
There is nothing to dislike about the company,however there is nothing to like about it either.Valuation at around 12x is not expensive however the risks of the sector and the smallness of the company does not make it very cheap either.Manufacturing in house,reduction of working capital might make it attractive later on. However I would give it a pass as there are better opportunities around.
September 20, 2010
Earthquake Vulnerability - Large Dam Construction has been linked to increased propensity of Earthquakes.Massive Earthquakes in China and Uttarakhand in India were linked to the building of Massive Dams in these countries.Building of Massive Man Made Structures along geologically sensitive areas has not been properly studied and understood till now
Summary
While Hydro Power is a necessity for an energy starved and growing economy like India,its effect have to be properly assessed and understood before going on a hydro binge.NTPC lost almost $300 million after its 600 MW project was canceled 5 years after getting permission.This was done in the face of large scale protest by local groups and NGOs.2 other projects in Uttarkhand have also been rejected leading to more losses.
September 20, 2010
US Energy Utilities have been buying up Green Companies at a rapid clip these days taking advantage of the fall in valuations of Green Companies recently.Exelon bought Deere's Wind Assets while NRG Energy bought Green Mountain Energy.Constellation Energy already has around 10% of its 9 GW of Electricity Capacity being sourced from Green Sources.Its Smart Grid buy is synergistic to is Energy Trading Core Business.It will help in expanding its customer base and sourcing new opportunities.For CPower Investors which are mainly PE players,it would be a good exit as competition in the Demand Response is increasing .
September 20, 2010
Orient Green Power Ltd (OGPL) is Indias Largest Green Utility and is one of the areas that is a good way to invest in India's Green Energy Sector.The company is owned by the Shriram Group and a couple of PE Players will issue around Rs 900 crores (~$180mm) which will result in a market cap of $450mm.OGPL is a relatively new company setting up and acquiring most of its 200 MW capacity in the last year which comprised of 152 MW of Wind Energy and the rest is Biomass Energy.The company plans to increase this capacity 4 fold to around 1000 MW in the next couple of years with Power Plants in India,Europe and Sri Lanka.The centrepiece of this expansion will be a 300 MW Wind Energy Plant in Tamil Nadu for which $10 million has been already been spent.The company's past profits and cash flow have been negative which is not exactly a concern given that most of the capacity was set up in the last year or so.I like the company's growth plans and the sector in which it operates.India suffers from a huge power deficit and Renewable Energy is being heavily promoted through Government Subsides and Renewable Energy Madates by the CERC.Trading of Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) should start in a year or so giving additional revenue streams to Green Energy Producers.Here are the pros and cons of the issue
September 19, 2010
Renewable Energy SMA Solar raises revenue guidance a second time: expects PV market to top 17GW in 2010 – PV-Tech Gigawatt scale: CEC approves Solar Millennium’s […]
September 18, 2010
Nokia's Stock Price has fallen by more than 50% in the last 2 years and have stayed at the same level despite a huge 40% Global Mobile Marketshare.Despite a Tech Resurgence,Nokia's stock has wallowed in its all time lows.Repeated Restructuring,Losing out to competition in India,Failure to keep up with Apple has made this a "pity stock".However its recent deal with Intel to launch Meego,a new CEO and N8 had given hopes to Nokia Faithful.However teething problems like the exit of the Smartphone Chief and delays in N8 has made those hopes recede.Also Nokia has unresolved Software issues as it tries to balance between 2 competing platforms of Symbian and Meego.It has decide on 1 platform and put all its effort there.Customers are cagey about buying phones with Operating Systems without a large Developer Support and Apps.The Ovi Store with just 13k apps is no match to iPhone's 250k apps.Its time for Nokia to put renewed efforts in order to resurrect its declining fortunes.
September 18, 2010
In our Financial linked world where Capital is Globalized while Regulation is not,Hot Money Flows are fueling inflation and asset based bubbles in Developing Countries.Some of the Emerging Markets are either close to or have surpassed the 2008 all time highs.Inflation is also hitting dangerous levels in some countries like Argentina,India and others.The depreciating dollar brought upon the the US Federal Reserve Printing of money has made it necessary that the Central Banks purchase Dollars.This has been done not only by Brazil and Singapore but also by Japan.With more Dollar Printing,these Purchases will increase the Liquidity in the Developing Countries.This is a sure shot recipe for high inflation which will be difficult to control.India has already raised Interest Rates 5 times this year in order to rein in the pernicious effects of high inflation on its largely poor population.
September 17, 2010
Finland is a Fossil Fuel Deficient country getting 30% of its power from Nuclear Energy and 28% from mostly Biomass and Hydro Energy.It is constructing more Nuclear Power to meet it future needs but a Recent Nuclear Plant has caused massive headache.Finland's Power Sector has been in the news recently for all the wrong reasons.A Nuclear Plant being built on a Baltic Sea Island of Olkiluoto has entered the annals of Project Finance as one of the biggest Disasters.The main contractor Areva which is the worlds' leading nuclear equipment supplier has surprisingly totally messed up.The original plan of builing the 1600 MW nuclear reactor for 4 billion Euros has doubled to 8 billion Euros.There are reports of faulty concrete bases and steel containers.There is already a blame game between the constructing companies Areva,EDF,Siemens and the government.The time and cost delay has truly been of epic proportions.Areva which is a giant conglomerate has suffered losses on account of just this one project.
September 17, 2010
NRG Energy is one of the largest utilities in the US with around 22 GW of Installed Capacity.However like Exelon,the share of Renewables is relatively low at just 2% of its overall Energy Capacity.Though the US Administration has all but given up on an Energy and Climate Legislation,Big Utilities recognize the need to generate low carbon electricity.Some sort of Carbon Emissions Restraint will be imposed on Utilities sometime in the future with EPA itching for action in restricting CO2 Emissions.Green Sector Stocks have fallen like a rock in 2010 due to the Copenhagen Disaster and lack of movement on a Climate Bill by the US government.Therefore it makes sense for US utilities to buy Renewable Energy Assets on the Cheap.Exelon bought Deere Energy Wind Farms at a dirt cheap price.NRG Energy which has around 550 MW of Wind and Solar Capacity bought Reliant Energy last year for $300 mm.It has augmented its Renewable Energy Portfolio with another $350mm buy of Green Mountain Energy.
September 17, 2010
BYD has fallen almost 35% this year heavily underperforming the market as sales growth has slowed substantially.After a 140% growth in Auto Sales last year,this year the sales growth will go down to 30% as the company has reduced sales target to 600,000 from 800,000 earlier.Chinese auto sales have fallen and BYD has been specially affected with its workhorse F3 Model declining in popularity.The company delivered a good first half with $100 million in 2Q profits.However the company is still quite expensive at $15 Billion Market Cap which would give it a P/E of around 38x.Also the company's strategy to enter solar energy does not make sense.However BYD is a good story for the future.China has made a new Green Policy to create National Champions in the EV and Battery Industry.BYD is a perfect candidate with its strengths in both areas.While its execution in the EV sector is yet to give results,it is already planning into the future getting into the Grid Storage Sectors.I would not put money presently but would wait for a better entry point in the future.
September 17, 2010
Rise of American Protectionism – Two cases against China in WTO and "Buy American" Bills by Congress
USA is increasing its protectionist actions recently filing 2 cases in World Trade Organisation against China over Electrical Steel and Credit Card payment providers.Only last week a US Union had filed a complaint with the US government about the Predatory Practices of Chinese Green Companies.USA thinks that China has unfairly put duties on US made Steel and it is locking out Mastercard and Visa from the credit card processing market in China.There is little doubt that China indulges in favoritism and implicit and explicit support of domestic companies.However it the scale that is the only difference .Like all other things China also implements its policies king size.MNCs in recent times like GE,Google,Siemens have all criticized Chinse discrimination against foreign companies.However WTO remains an ineffective body to resolve complex Trades Disputes.The US Congress is also getting into the China-Bashing Act by passing 2 bills that mandate "Buy American" clauses.The US has already antagonized the Indian IT Industry by specifically targeting the Indian companies like Infosys and Wipro.These new bills target China making it mandatory for government departments to buy American made goods.With November Elections fast approaching,politicians are outdoing each other in protectionist rhetoric.
September 17, 2010
Eros International Media Limited (EIML) is one of the biggest owners and distributors of Indian Films.It owns a Film Library of around 1000 Indian Films including some inconic titles.The Company is involved in the business of sourcing,creating and distributing media content which is mainly films.It has grown at a fast clip in the past 3-4 years though the last year was slower on account of the GFC.It is a part of the Eros Group Plc and has till now grown mainly through the financial backing and networking of its parent.There is a lot to like about this IPO and very little to dislike.The valuation on a P/E basis is also not expensive at around 19x.Given that the Indian economy is booming with Entertainment one of the hottest sectors,this is a good play on this sector.Here are some of the highlights from their DHRP
September 16, 2010
The Competition in the Battery Segment of Energy Storage keeps on increasing with entry of new players.While established players like LG Chemicals,Panasonic are increasing capacity,there has been a raft of new startups and biggies entering this segment.Toshbia,NEC,SK Energy,Sumitomo,Samsung SDI everyone wants a piece of one of the fastest growing segments of the Electric Vehicle Sector.This has already led to a supply glut leading to a decrease in ASPs.A123 Systems has recently opening a huge factory manufacturing Lithium Cells in Michigan with the help of US government grants.With Obama aiming to capture 40% of the EV Market by US companies,more such factories are expected to come online resulting in a further supply demand mismatch.China also wants to create national champions in the Clean Transport Sector and has line up huge subsidies as well.
September 16, 2010
Algae Based Biofuels as a Green Investing Opportunity is still some years away as the technology is still quite nascent.Despite a lot of hoopla and a number of IPO's with synthetic biofuels as business,large scale commercial production and profits are still some time away.However the promise of this technology to revolutionize the Fossil Fuel powered Transportation Sector is Huge.Large Oil and Gas is already positioning itself in a small way to take advantage of this opportunity.Shell has been the biggest investor in Biofuels with a $12 Billion tie up with Brazilian Sugar Giant Cosan.Valero has also smartly invested in a number of biofuel startups despite being one of the strongest opponents of Green Energy.Exxon has only promised huge investments without investing much till date.
September 16, 2010
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on its 50th Anniversary has called the Developed Nations Subsidies as "Unfair" and has referred Alternative Energy as the biggest challenge facing the Rich Oil Exporting Nation Cartel.OPEC is being a huge hypocrite as Fossil Fuels Subsides totalled $550 Billion last year which is almost 12x the Subsidies given to Green Energy.However no mention of this fact was said as these Green Subsidies were "not acceptable" OPEC.The OPEC Chief Abdalla el-Badri wanted a level playing field with this nascent Green Energy.OPEC is a 12 Nation Club formed mostly of Middle Eastern Nations who control 80% of the Global Oil Reserves and 33% of the Production.Saudi Arabia is the non-official leader of this Cartel and has been known for its opposition to Climate Change efforts.The other nations too support Saudi Arabia recently blocking a group of Poor Island Nations from accessing climate change data.These Nations have shockingly asked for Aid as Global Warming Concerns reduce the Fossil Fuel Demand.Most of the Middle East Exporters are filthy rich generating huge amounts of cash from the Export of Fossil Fuels.
September 15, 2010
Shady Management - Income Tax Raids on the company and its promoters found $1.3 million in unaccounted cash and jewelery,cash and documents were impounded.The promoters have been accused of falsifying accounts,evading tax and Registrar of Companies (ROC) and Service Tax Department have also served notices.
Expensive Valuation - The company will come out with a valuation of P/E of 30-32x which is more expensive than other listed education companies.At least Prakash Steelage with a corrupt management had the decency to come with a discount
Summary
The only thing to like about this company is the sector that it operates in.However Shady Management,Super High Valuation and Regulatory Risk makes this company a strictly no subscribe.However given the shenanigans being openly perpetrated in the Indian Stock Market don't be surprised to see a 100% Listing Gain.
September 15, 2010
Sumitomo entered the Wind Energy Business in the US by buying a 42.5% stake in Stanton 120 MW Wind Farm in Texas.The Company already has Wind Assets in Japan and is partnering with Giant Chinese Utility Datang for building Renewable Energy Assets in China.Sumitomo has already built a 50 MW Wind Farm in Inner Mongolia with Datang and Kyushu Electric.Sumitomo is already strong in constructing geothermal plants having built a 140 MW Nga Awa Purua Geothermal Plant in New Zealand in 2 years flat.It also has contracts to build upto 530 MW of Geothermal Plants in Indonesia.In Phillipines the Company has partnered with another Japanese Trading Powerhouse Marubeni to finance Biomass and Waste to Energy Plants.However Solar Energy is strangely missing from Sumitomo's strategy.It activity till now has been restricted to some small PV plants in Spain and trading of Solar Panels made by Sharp and others.Note other Global Conglomerates like ABB,GE,Siemens,LG,Samsung are in the process of making massive investments into the Green Industry.
September 15, 2010
Note this Hydro Plant will cost around $31 Billion which is quite costly at $15/watt if the the $31 Billion is used for the 1800 MW capacity.This is is almost 15x the cost of a typical Hydro Capacity and would need massive subsidies.Papua New Guinea is a poor country and might receive aid from Australia but the $31 Billion would make even the richest country balk at this price.Australia is not exactly energy deficient with massive resources of coal,wind and solar energy.In Renewable Energy the country has been quite slow with provinces like NSW and South Australia promoting renewable energy through regional subsidies.Hydro Power is the main source of Clean Power accounting for 90% of the Clean Energy Mix.The Project will take 10 years to build and their remains an outside chance that Oil Prices become so high that 24 hr Hydro Power at that time might make sense at $15/watt.
September 15, 2010
The Indian Stock Market is consistently making new highs as Foreign Money Surges into India it its hunger for yield.FIIs this year have invested almost $15 Billion into the Stock Markets as Indian Economy grows at a rapid 8%+ growth.Along with Thailand,Malaysia,Indonesia and other emerging markets,Indian Stock Markets are approaching Bubble Territory of the late 2007 and early 2008 days.Substantial Risks are being ignored by the Herd Mentality of Portfolio Managers who are lapping up India's Growth Story.Domestic Money on the other hand has been very circumspect during the last 1 year.Domestic Mutual Funds have become aggressive sellers in the last leg of this rally while Retail Investors are Bailing out Enmasse.
Retail Investors have sold around $2.5 Billion of Stocks in the last 1 year when the Stock Market has catapulted by almost 25%.This is one of the strangest bull markets as Indian investors remain largely skeptical of this rally.
September 15, 2010
India has started a Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) Scheme recently to boost the share of Clean Energy Sources in India’s Electricity Mix.India’s Electricity Regulator (CERC) has […]
September 15, 2010
While Solar Energy is a new kid on the block,Wind Energy has been growing very strongly in the past Decade.Italy was rethinking its Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) Scheme to remove price guarantees but at the last minute it changed its mind.Wind is being installed at a rate of 1 GW per year in the last few years.The Italian Mafia has latched onto this lucrative business muscling their way in.The Sicilian Mafia is said to own a large portion of the country Wind Farm Assets and the $1.9 Billion Seizure of assets from a high flying businessman is proof of this.43 Companies mainly operating in the Solar and Wind Segments were seized by the state in one of the biggest swoops against Organized Crime.Wind Turbines involve acquisition of land,local permits and subsidy grants which require a lot of organization and local clout.The Sicilian Mafia is uniquely place to control and organize the setting up of Wind Farms.With a government guaranteed return of Euro 18c/KwH,the Wind Subsidy in Italy is one of the highest in the world.Compare this to the Rest of the World where Wind Subsidies get around $0.10/KwH.Note Criminals have not only been involved in Italy,but there are also reports of nefarious activity in Renewable Energy in Bulgaria,Spain,Canary Islands etc.
September 15, 2010
With Every Country wanting to Use Exports to get out of their Tough Fiscal Situations,it does seem that Currency Manipulation will become a mainstream activity.Gold and Silver are already touching new highs and with countries hell bent on competitively devaluing their currencies,expect the precious metals to go even higher.
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